Didn’t they ? How come AIB Bankcentre, just to mention one, was sold, then ?

> Regarding Irish loan default rates, the current stock > prices of the Irish banks is as close to a ‘fact’ that
> you’ll find I suspect. Part of the problem is the banks > don’t have to disclose how they arrive at these expected > loan default percentages. However they cannot fool the
> international equity market investors who know better
> (from experience in other countries/busts) and dump
> their stocks.

Maybe, but maybe not. Current bank stock prices worldwide reflect the fear and read generated by the cataclysmic events of the last few weeks more than anything more rational, I suspect. It is not sensible to regard them as a reliable indicator of anything much at present. Irish values would be discounted simply because of the size of the market anyway.

How many holders of Irish bank shares are selling I wonder ?

John — Well done on that..

But hopefully you haven;t given up on your ‘primary’
passion… You were very interesting as a techie
blogger back in the day’ Folllow your passion aehso….

@fergus,
Its a global money market and all investment vehicles are chasing the same margins so I would assume most are exposed to these exotic markets if they had attracted/payed ‘the skilled ones’ to trade there for them. Perhaps the Irish banks couldn’t compete to get into these markets to the same extent as their (admittedly much larger) US counterparts or perhaps they anticipated the crash and sold off those positions last year. The fact that they didn’t see the Irish properly crash coming leads me to suspect the latter is not true.
Regarding Irish loan default rates, the current stock prices of the Irish banks is as close to a ‘fact’ that you’ll find I suspect. Part of the problem is the banks don’t have to disclose how they arrive at these expected loan default percentages. However they cannot fool the international equity market investors who know better (from experience in other countries/busts) and dump their stocks.
We look on with interest and wonder how long the bank management will hold out. We rely on the markets to naturally price financial equity at the value they believe it is worth (not based on what the management tell them). And in the meantime our gombeen goberment have gone and decided to drag down the credit rating of the irish state by wading into a mess they don’t understand.

On the default rates, 1.5% certainly looks puny in the light of the U.S. experience. But is that a valid comparison ? For all their faults, did Irish mortgage lenders really emulate the insanity that we’ve been hearing about from Lewis and others ?

Are there any facts in the public domain that would allow us to pronounce on these matters ?

Plenty of commentary on Banking disasters..

But, in fairness… as a longtime geek blogger.

What about your good self? have you found a job yet?

Or still not working?